Probabilistic Projections of Multidimensional Flood Risks at a Convection?Permitting Scale
نویسندگان
چکیده
Understanding future river flood risk is a prerequisite for developing climate change adaptation strategies and enhancing disaster resilience. Previous assessments can barely take into account changes of fine-scale hydroclimatic characteristics hardly quantify multivariate interactions among variables, thereby resulting in an unreliable assessment risk. In this study, the first time, we develop probabilistic projections multidimensional risks at convection-permitting scale through Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) simulations with 4-km horizontal grid spacing. Vine copula has been widely used to assess dependence structure hydroclimate but commonly frequentist approach may fail identify correct vine model obtain uncertainty interval. Thus, Bayesian proposed explicitly address (i.e., peak, volume, duration) underlying uncertainties. The enables robust return periods floods Guadalupe Mission basins located South Texas United States. Our findings reveal that region projected experience more events longer duration greater discharge volume. however, will not necessarily increase even though precipitation extremes are expected become frequent. over basin do show obvious while face dramatic exposed 100-year severer nearly every 2 years, on average, when considering combined effects duration.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Water Resources Research
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0043-1397', '1944-7973']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr028582